A Republican is leading the polls to become the next governor of California. No, you didn’t misread that. A former Fox News host named Steve Hilton — who was born in England, by the way — is polling ahead of every single Democrat in the race to replace Gavin Newsom.
You cannot make this stuff up.
Here’s how this beautiful disaster is unfolding. California uses a “top two” primary system where every candidate from every party runs on the same ballot and only the top two finishers advance to November. It doesn’t matter what party they’re from. If two Republicans finish first and second, the Democrats don’t even get a candidate in the general election.
Right now, the polling looks like this: Steve Hilton (R) at 17%, Chad Bianco (R) — the sheriff of Riverside County — at 14%, and Eric Swalwell (D) at 14%. Katie Porter and Tom Steyer are trailing behind in single digits. Eight Democrats are splitting the left-wing vote into confetti while two Republicans are vacuuming up the entire right side of the electorate.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks saw this trainwreck coming and begged the lower-polling Democrats to drop out. They told him to pound sand. Only one candidate — some former Assembly member named Ian Calderon whom nobody has ever heard of — actually listened.
(Imagine being the head of the California Democratic Party and you can’t even get your own candidates to return your phone calls. Rough week, Rusty.)
Democratic strategists have run the numbers and they’re sweating bullets. Paul Mitchell, one of their own data guys, says there’s a 27% chance that BOTH Republicans make the November ballot — meaning Democrats would be locked out entirely. And that number jumped to 28% after another Republican dropped out and consolidated the right-wing vote even further.
Let’s pause and appreciate what we’re witnessing. California — the bluest of blue states, the land of Gavin Newsom’s hair gel and Nancy Pelosi’s ice cream freezer — might end up with a governor’s race between two Republicans. The state that lectures the rest of America about “democracy” can’t figure out how to run a primary without eliminating its own party.
Eric Swalwell — yes, THAT Eric Swalwell, the congressman who had a Chinese spy as his girlfriend — thinks he should be governor. Katie Porter, the woman who couldn’t even hold onto her House seat in purple Orange County, thinks she deserves a promotion to the corner office in Sacramento. Tom Steyer, the billionaire who spent $342 million of his own money on a presidential campaign and got zero delegates, figures third time’s the charm.
And they’d all rather lose to a Republican than drop out and let another Democrat win. That’s the modern Democratic Party in a nutshell — they’d rather burn the house down than let someone else live in it.
## Where This Is Going
This isn’t just a funny story about Democratic incompetence. The math here is genuinely devastating for the left, and they know it.
Think back to 2012, when California first started this top-two system. In the 31st congressional district, two Republicans advanced to the general because Democrats split their vote across too many candidates. The national party had a meltdown, swore it would never happen again, and started aggressively clearing fields in future races. Fourteen years later, they still haven’t learned the lesson — and now it’s happening in a GOVERNOR’S race, not some random House seat.
Here’s the number that should keep every Democrat in Sacramento up at night: Steve Hilton pulled 38% of Republican voters and 22% of independents. Bianco has 37% of Republicans. Between them, the two Republicans are consolidating nearly the entire right-of-center vote while eight Democrats fight over the scraps on the left. In a top-two system, that’s not a problem — that’s a death sentence.
“But California is so blue!” Sure it is. And the June primary typically has lower turnout, which benefits motivated voters. You know who’s motivated right now? Republicans watching their guy lead in a state they were told they could never win. You know who’s not motivated? Democrats trying to pick between eight interchangeable candidates, none of whom have given anyone a reason to show up.
(Quick math for the Swalwell fans: if Hilton gets 17% and Bianco gets 14%, that’s 31% locked up for the GOP. The remaining 69% has to be split between EIGHT Democrats plus undecideds. Even if you’re generous with the numbers, Swalwell needs every Porter voter, every Steyer voter, and a chunk of undecideds just to squeak into second place. Good luck with that.)
Before this is over, one of two things happens. Either the Democratic Party bosses find a way to force five or six of their candidates out of the race — which they’ve already tried and failed to do — or Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco advance to November and Democrats spend the fall trying to explain how they lost their own state.
And the most delicious part? If two Republicans DO make the general, every national Democrat who spent the last decade bragging about California’s “permanent blue majority” gets to eat those words on live television. California would become the single biggest embarrassment in Democratic Party history — worse than losing to Trump twice, because at least they could blame that on the Electoral College. There’s no Electoral College excuse for being too disorganized to field one winning candidate in your own state’s primary.
Mark my words — Steve Hilton is going to be the next governor of California. A British-born Fox News host, running a state that banned plastic straws. The jokes write themselves, and the Democrats are the punchline.