Texas Republicans just spent $122 million to not make a decision.
John Cornyn clocked in at 41.9%, Ken Paxton at 40.7%, and Wesley Hunt at a distant 13.5% — meaning nobody hit 50%, and now we get to do this whole thing again on May 26. The most expensive Senate primary in American history, and we’re still in overtime. Your donors thank you.
Cornyn is the quintessential swamp creature — the kind of Republican who shows up to D.C. and uses seniority to help Democrats pass gun control. After Uvalde, he negotiated the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act with red flag law provisions. He was proud of it. That’s the establishment candidate.
Paxton, meanwhile, survived a full impeachment effort by Texas House Republicans — many of whom were backed by the same donor class propping up Cornyn — and came out the other side still standing. His base didn’t abandon him. If anything, they rallied harder. That’s the MAGA candidate.
The runoff is going to be ugly. Cornyn’s camp will hammer Paxton on the legal battles and the personal scandals. Paxton’s camp will remind every Republican primary voter in Texas exactly what Cornyn did on guns, and play the clip on a loop.
On the Democratic side, Rep. James Talarico beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett, which is a fun primary result that will ultimately be irrelevant. Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Whatever they’re selling, Texas isn’t buying.
The real story here is what the $122 million price tag tells us about the stakes. The establishment is absolutely terrified of losing this seat to a Paxton-style MAGA Republican. They’ve poured everything they have into stopping it. And they couldn’t even get Cornyn over 50% in a primary.
May 26 is going to be very interesting.